Africa Will Save Zimbabwe

Despite popular opinion—including that of the NY Times and George Bush—the United States should butt out of Zimbabwe. There are numerous reasons, but the most important one is that Africans can and should settle their own affairs.

Perfectly and quickly? Of course not. To our satisfaction? Highly unlikely. But, given time and support instead of demands and threats, the nations of Africa are finding their own solutions to most of the difficult problems posed by independence in other parts of the continent. Zimbabwe is no different.

Russia and China had their own reasons for vetoing the U.S.-sponsored U.N. Security Council resolution imposing sanctions on Robert Mugabe and his government, but there are several other points that should be kept in mind as we decry their actions:

1. U.S. coercion does more harm than good by confirming in Mugabe’s supporters’ minds (and others) that the opposition party, MDC, and especially its presidential candidate Morgan Tsvangirai are tools of white colonialists. Whether they are or not is not relevant. Quite frankly, when Tsvangirai pleaded for help after withdrawing from the election—all but asking for whites to invade Zimbabwe to put him in office—he lost his street cred.

2. The fact that the U.S. has nothing to say about equally-tyrannical leaders like Angolan President Jose Eduardo Dos Santos belies our statements that Mugabe must go because he rules without the consent of the voters.

3. U.S. interference polarizes the regional governments that are most likely able to broker a deal. Governments that align themselves with the U.S. position look weak in the eyes of their own people. They also are pulled farther away from regional powers who openly resent U.S. intrusion, making it more difficult for them to form a united front to pressure Mugabe to step down or form a unity government. It’s hard to overstate the amount of resentment toward white powers that exists in many quarters.

The biggest single reason for the U.S. to back off is that the continent’s nations have overwhelmingly told us to. The African Union and Southern African Development Community denounced the U.N. resolution before it was vetoed. South Africa, the regional leader and country most affected by the crisis, is particularly vehement in telling the U.S. to mind its own business.

There is plenty of strong opposition to Mugabe among the nations of Africa. Botswana, Tanzania, Zambia, Liberia, Senegal, and Sierra Leone have all denounced the sham election and spoken out for the rule of law to be established in Zimbabwe. Botswana has even increased its troop positions along the border. If George Bush and his unlikely partner the NY Times would stop treating them like children, the Africans will solve their own problems.

Dave Donelson, author of Heart of Diamonds

Tags: romantic thriller, Congo, blood diamonds

Goodbye, Zimbabwe

Bang the drum slowly, it's all over but the hand-wringing in Zimbabwe. Morgan Tsvangirai's withdrawl from the Presidential run-off election means that Robert Mugabe has officially won, ensuring that his party, the Zimbabwe African National Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) will remain in power for the foreseeable future. It's a big blow for democracy in Africa, not to mention another big nail in the coffin of what was once a beautiful, prosperous nation.

In a face-saving gesture, Tsvangirai will call (again) for a unity government. His plea will be echoed by the US, Britain, and perhaps one or two regional nations. The man and his party have no leverage, however, so Mugabe will certainly refuse to even consider the "demand" that he give up any power.

Mugabe had already announced he wouldn't recognize the results of the election if he lost, why should he give in now?

There is no organized opposition to the Old Man in Zimbabwe, as the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC)'s failure to nominate a viable candidate proved. What about Tsvangirai? With all due respect to his bravery in both mounting a campaign and then having the decency to call it off before more bloodshed occurs, he was never a strong opponent. His past failures to pull his party together, previous half-hearted attempts to force a unity government on Mugabe, and apparent inability to rally the leaders of regional states around his cause have to be seen as contributing factors to his defeat.

While there is no question that ZANU-PF's brutality destroyed the democratic process, Tsvangirai's weak candidacy was doomed to failure from the start. Until MDC finds a leader--or another opposition party emerges (a highly unlikely prospect)--Mugabe and whoever succeeds him as the head of ZANU-PF (even the Old Man won't live forever, but his power base might) will continue to rule Zimbabwe.

Is there anyone else who can bring about change? Not really. Simba Makoni, a senior member of ZANU-PF until he was expelled and a one-time Minister of Finance, staged a campaign in the first election, but I suspect he was allowed to run simply to split the opposition vote, which he did. Arthur Mutambara, a leader of an MDC faction opposed to Tsvangirai, threw his support to Makoni not long after he announced his candidacy. The result was that Makoni essentially became Zimbabwe's Ralph Nader, garnering just enough votes (8.3%) to ensure no clear victory for MDC.

There won't be any outside intervention, either, regardless of how loudly the New York Times and the rest of the Western press bang that drum. Any action by the UN Security Council will be blocked by South Africa. The US and Britain are in no position to start any other foreign wars--and who appointed them Africa's savior anyway? Any action whatsoever by the West will simply play into Mugabe's claim that his opponents are no more than pawns of the colonialists, further inflaming his club-wielding supporters.

Nor will the regional states step in, even though they have the most to lose as Zimbabwe continues to sink into oblivion and its people flood over their borders looking for new lives. South Africa's President Thabo Mbeki has done little more than jawbone around the situation, obviously reluctant to undercut his ally, Mugabe. Levy Patrick Mwanawasa of Zambia and Botswana President Seretse Ian Khama have spoken harshly, but that's about all they can do without the heft of South Africa behind them.

What does the future hold for Zimbabwe? Much, much more of the same. Harsher Western economic sanctions will take the remaining scraps of food off the tables of the poor but mean little or nothing to the "Big Men" at the top of the heap. Food aid will resume, but be distributed (one way or the other) by Mugabe's men only to those who support the party. Eventually, Chinese arms shipments will resume.

The West will cry and protest, but the people of Zimbabwe will die in silence.

Dave Donelson, author of Heart of Diamonds

Tags: romantic thriller, Congo, blood diamonds

Botswana Proves A Point

Not all African governments are as intransigently harmful as Robert Mugabe's in Zimbabwe. Just next door, Botswana recently transferred power from the democratically-elected Festus Mogae to his party's new leader, Ian Khama, demonstrating that African government does not have to be synonymous with tyranny.

Botswana also demonstrates that natural resources do not have to inevitably fall into the hands of the strongest strong man or the most rapacious ruler. Her diamond mines, discovered a year after the country achieved independence in 1967, make Botswana the world's largest diamond producer. But they are operated through a partnership between the state and the DeBeers Group that provides 60% of the government's revenues.

Those monies, in turn, go not into a despot's foreign bank account or to pay for private armies, but rather into places where government funds can do the most good: education, health care, public works, and a working justice system. The mines also provide jobs for thousands of Botswanans whose wages ripple throughout the economy, raising the standards of living for all.

Botswana is no Utopia, but it has the highest GDP per capita forecast in sub-Saharan Africa, $8,453, according to global investment banking group UBS. Botswana is also ranked as the continent's least corrupt country by Transparency International. The country has reduced the mother-to-child transmission rate for HIV from 40% of all live births to a mere 4% today.

Botswana proves the point that nations of Africa can prosper once they throw off the bonds of strongman tyranny.

Dave Donelson, author of Heart of Diamonds

Tags: romantic thriller, Congo, blood diamonds

The Snake of Zimbabwe

It appears as of this writing that the election in Zimbabwe has produced the worst possible result. With the state-run newspaper, The Herald, reporting that no candidate has secured a majority, it looks like the country is headed for a run-off vote that could easily spark Kenyan-type violence as Mugabe’s supporters try to squash the opposition one more time.

While it’s possible that forcing a run-off is simply Robert Mugabe’s way to buy more time to negotiate with Morgan Tsvangirai to arrange a graceful exit, such a move would not be in character for a man who views every challenge to his power as a personal humiliation.

Then there are Mugabe’s supporters in ZANU-PF. They have little or no incentive to see him replaced and, while there have been reports that the party is showing signs of disunity, the odds of “the old man” getting tossed out by his own people are not positive. Why would they, when to denounce him would be to endanger their own prosperity? It was Mugabe, after all, who awarded them ownership of the white-owned corporate farms that were supposedly confiscated for the people of the country. It was Mugabe who made sure they received the cars, homes, tractors, and even food that the rest of the country could only dream of.

Just weeks before the election, Mugabe’s government ruled that all business enterprises in the country must be majority owned by native Zimbabweans, thus threatening to do the same thing to the nation’s mining and manufacturing industry as it did to agriculture. The likely new owners? His supporters, of course.

We should also keep in mind that the head of a snake is but a small part of the whole. Even if Robert Mugabe is replaced, a great deal of the body will still be writhing on the ground.

Dave Donelson, author of Heart of Diamonds

Tags: romantic thriller, Congo, blood diamonds

Glimmers of Hope for Africa

Among all the crises plaguing Central Africa, there seem to be glimmers of progress in several ugly situations. The grief is far from over, and simmering pots are ready to boil over in other places, but there are positive signs in some of the most recent trouble spots. Having visited many of these places while researching Heart of Diamonds, I’m cautiously optimistic.

In Uganda, the Ugandan government and the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) agreed to set up a special division of the country's high court to try war crimes committed during the 21-year-old conflict. There are still huge hurdles to be jumped, but at least there is some movement toward a permanent ceasefire.

Kenya lurches tentatively toward peace, although it may be generations before the damage to inter-tribal relations can be erased. President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga may announce a joint-governance agreement as early as tomorrow.

Zimbabwe may actually hold an election that matters next month. Simba Makoni, a senior member of President Robert Mugabe’s own ruling party, the Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), has announced he will run against the 83-year-old despot. The opposition party couldn’t unite behind a viable candidate, and Mugabe may still well coast to victory, but the presence of an opponent from his own party is a welcome sign.

Darfur remains a shameful open sore, of course, and unrest festers in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Chad, and many other places, but there may be glimmers of hope for some.

Dave Donelson, author of Heart of Diamonds

Tags:romantic thriller, Congo, blood diamonds