Congo, Rwanda, Uganda: Speculation & Opinion

How can three countries with such a history of cross-border conflict suddenly become fast friends? I'm not necessarily objecting to the easing of tensions and growing rapprochement between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Rwanda, and Uganda--just about any move with the potential to bring peace to Congo is a good thing in my book--but I do have some questions about why it's happening. Like the journalist that I am, I seldom take pronouncements by public officials at face value. And like the chess player that I also am, I try to look a few moves ahead.

Antagonism between the three countries is the historical norm, so the recent change in the tenor of their relationship is puzzling. Uganda and Rwanda both invaded Congo twice in the last 15 years or so. They both directly participated in the overthrow of two of the last three governments, including that of Laurent Kabila, father of current DRC President Joseph Kabila. Why, then, would Kabila invite his two belligerent neighbors to send their armies into the DRC? I've offered some thoughts previously, but now I'd like to add another layer to my guesswork.

First, a little background about the two most recent military actions that prompt my speculation.

In mid-December, The Ugandans joined with the FARDC (the Congolese army) and the South Sudanese in an abortive attempt to kill or capture Joseph Kony, whose rebel group, the Lords Resistance Army, has been carrying on its fight against Yoweri Museveni's government for the last several years from bases in Congo. The operation, which was mounted with logistical and strategic backing from U.S. military advisers, proved to be a debacle, with 900 Congolese civilians murdered, thousands more raped and kidnapped, and 85,000 driven from their homes by Kony's gangsters in retribution. A handful of LRA officers have been captured and a few dozen soldiers killed, but the operation has been a grand failure otherwise.

The Ugandans promised to leave Congolese soil by the end of February, then didn't. The latest announcement calls for a departure by the end of this month, even though Kony remains at large and his troops, though scattered, continue to terrorize the population.

In the meantime, Kabila met with Museveni to discuss improved relations between the two countries. Not revealed in the public announcements was any decision about how oil reserves on the border between the two countries are going to be divided. Oil has long been a bone of contention between the two nations. When I was in the region researching Heart of Diamonds in 2007, shots were fired over the development of those reserves.

The second part of the mystery was Kabila's highly unpopular invitation to Paul Kagame to send Rwandan troops into North Kivu in pursuit of the FDLR, the Hutu Interahamwe rebels who have terrorized the region since fleeing there after the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Strangely enough, the only significant accomplishment of that joint operation was the arrest of Tutsi rebel warlord Laurent Nkunda, who was detained as he traveled in Rwanda not long after it started. His troops, the CNDP, are being integrated into the Congolese army under the command of indicted war criminal Bosco Ntaganda.

The FDLR? They scattered into the same hills where they have operated with impunity for over a decade. The Rwandan army went home to enjoy their victory parade (unlike the Ugandans), but the FDLR returned and started raping and murdering civilians they accuse of co-operating with the Rwandans.

So what has been accomplished? For the civilians, not much. They are still hugely at risk in the conflict zones. Uganda strengthened its influence in the northern DRC while Rwanda did the same in the Kivus. The DRC got rid of Laurent Nkunda and co-opted the CNDP, at least on paper.

Joseph Kabila may have gained something else, though, and this is where my speculative instinct takes over. The next DRC Presidential election is to be held in 2011. My guess? Kabila is building personal ties with Uganda and Rwanda to back his candidacy when the time comes. In a truly dark scenario, he also my be laying the groundwork for their military intervention in the event that his re-election attempt fails.

As disturbing as such a scenario may be, let me add another layer. Kabila's budding alliances with Uganda and Rwanda also open him to support from their biggest backer, the United States. The potential has already been seen in the American support for the Ugandan operation, with intelligence, strategic advice, communications gear, and a reported $1 million in fuel supplied by the U.S. While American involvement in the Rwandan campaign hasn't been revealed, there is no secret about the U.S. use of Rwanda as a military staging area for humanitarian relief efforts (so far) for Darfur. It wouldn't be much of a stretch to see an expansion of U.S. military involvement in the DRC.

Now let me offend more than a few people.

Putting aside the pros and cons of Joseph Kabila's past and future performance as President and the possible influence these alliances might have on his re-election, it is conceivable that this may be the path to peace in the eastern DRC. It's obvious the Congolese army isn't capable of bringing calm to the region; the United Nations has proven to be much less than effective for numerous reasons; and other help from outside, particularly the EU and AU, just isn't going to happen. If six million dead aren't enough to bring the rest of the world to Congo's aid, what is?

In other words, a regional solution backed by the United States might be the only viable alternative. The motives of ALL the players would be suspect, but the results might be worth it. IF peace can be brought to the country, the Congo's economic and social development can take place. IF that happens with full transparency, truly competitive bidding, and carefully monitored performance contracts, the DRC can fully profit from its natural wealth and begin to achieve its full potential.

A stretch? Certainly, but it may be the only pragmatic solution.

Dave Donelson, author of Heart of Diamonds a romantic thriller about blood diamonds in the Congo.

AFRICOM Backs Botched Congo Operation

One of the first publicly-acknowledged AFRICOM operations has turned into a general debacle, resulting in the death of nearly a thousand civilians and sending untold numbers of children into sex slavery and military servitude.

The New York Times reports that the newly-organized US military command for Africa, AFRICOM, bankrolled the largely-botched joint Ugandan-Congolese-South Sudan campaign to wipe out Joseph Kony's Lords Resistance Army, which has been using the DRC's northeastern Haut-Eule province near Garamba National Park as a safe haven since it fled Uganda in 2005. AFRICOM said it supplied $1 million worth of gasoline, satellite phones, intelligence, and 17 military advisers to help in the planning, although no US personnel were involved in the fighting. Despite the US support, the LRA eluded the attackers and turned on the civilian population in retribution.

The anti-LRA campaign, bombastically named "Operation Lightning Thunder," was poorly conceived and even more poorly executed. The joint Ugandan-Congolese forces hoped to surprise Kony in his lair in the Garamba forest on December 14. The plan was to bomb his headquarters, then move in with land forces to wipe up the remains. Instead, as has been reported, weather got in the way and apparently word got to Kony and his troops in plenty of time for them to flee. The air attacked flattened basically empty huts and the ground forces captured a small pile of discarded weapons and supplies.

The LRA scattered in angry groups bent on destruction. The effect of the operation can be described as what happens when you throw water on a pan of burning grease: potential death goes everywhere.

The Congolese and Ugandan command had made no plans to cut off fleeing elements of the LRA, so the rebels scattered throughout the countryside in a rampage of fresh violence. Villages were pillaged and burned, hundreds of civilians murdered and raped, and an undetermined number of children were kidnapped, tactics the LRA has used throughout its twenty-year history. A spokesman for Doctors Without Borders, says more than 50 villages in the area have been attacked. Kony disappeared.

Since the disastrous initial strike, Ugandan officials have touted a string of "victories" in which dozens of rifles and stores of food supposedly left behind by the fleeing rebels have been captured. A couple hundred LRA soldiers have reportedly surrendered.

In the meantime, the official civilian death toll is 900 and 100,000 people have been driven from their homes.

Dave Donelson, author of Heart of Diamonds a romantic thriller about blood diamonds in the Congo.

Speculation On Congo Maneuvers

I generally try to avoid speculation in this space, using it instead to report events in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), especially as they relate to my novel, Heart of Diamonds. Today is different.

Things are changing in the DRC, and recent events lead me to make a few guesses as to what they mean and where they might lead. Despite the dire conditions in the eastern provinces (and elsewhere), I think there is a bright light at the end of the tunnel.

My guess is that the threat of final victory by the CNDP and the potential establishment of an independent nation in the Virungas prompted Joseph Kabila's government to take some drastic steps. Those steps have a good chance of paying off in the long term and perhaps even start the country on the path to peace.

First, Kabila agreed to negotiate directly with Laurent Nkunda under the auspices of the United Nations. This not only bought Kabila some time, but further committed the UN to an expanded peace-keeping role in the region. As ineffectual as it may be, MONUC's presence and the commitment of 3,000 additional troops (someday) can only reinforce Kabila's claim to legitimacy.

Second, Kabila invited Yoweri Museveni to send Ugandan forces into the DRC to join some Congolese regular army units (the FARDC) and troops from South Sudan in a hunt for Joseph Kony and the Lords Resistance Army. Kony has been thumbing his nose at Museveni from the Congo since he moved his rebel army from Uganda. Even if Operation Thunder Lightning, as it is called, is unsuccessful, my guess is that there will be a quid pro quo somewhere along the line. It could be Ugandan help in an attack on the CNDP sometime in the future, or at least a guarantee that Museveni won't provide support to Nkunda's rebels.

The third step was Kabila's surprise invitation to the Rwandan army to join Congolese forces in a campaign to eradicate the remnants of the Hutu Interahamwe, the FDLR, who have vowed to overthrow Paul Kagame's Tutsi-led government after having fled to the DRC following the genocide of 1994. General James Kabarebe, the Chief of Staff of the Rwandan army, was in Kinshasa last week to work on the joint plan. How does Kabila profit from having Rwanda troops on Congolese soil--an about-face from his long-held stance? It removes Nkunda's cause for rebellion, which has supposedly been to protect Congolese Tutsis from the FDLR.

These two alliances and the commitment of UN troops to support the peace effort also send a message to rogue commanders in the FARDC who have been setting up their own little fiefdoms in the Kivus: Come back into the fold or you could be next.

Kabila's latest move--and this is pure speculation on my part--was to persuade Bosco Ntaganda, Laurent Nkunda's second in command, to break away and split the CNDP into two factions. That situation is still murky and far from resolved (as I wrote recently), but it can only work in Kabila's favor. Whether a deal was made under the table with Ntaganda or he decided to bolt on his own after seeing the pressure build against Nkunda, his move gives Kabila a lot of room and strength in the negotiations.

What happens if all this plays out as I speculate? Peace in the eastern provinces may finally arrive and a million people may be able to return to their homes and rebuild their shattered lives. That peace might even stand a chance of enduring if the military alliances morph into a common economic market built on the rich resources in the region. If all the nations involved have opportunity to reap above-board profits from the mines and forests and farms of the Congo, they will be much more likely to keep the peace.

Dave Donelson, author of Heart of Diamonds a romantic thriller about blood diamonds in the Congo.

Lord's Resistance Army On The Run

The Lord's Resistance Army continues to reel from concentrated attacks by the joint military forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Uganda, and South Sudan. A group of 20 rebels surrendered to the Congolese army just three days after ten others were killed during a rebel assault on Megero airstrip in the northeastern DRC.

The three armies launched the offensive December 14. Code named, "Operation Lightning Thunder," it has scattered the rebels and sent them fleeing deeper into the jungles of Garamba and into neighboring Central African Republic, where they have raided villages in the past. The LRA is believed to consist of fewer than 1,000 fighters now, the remnants of a force trying to overthrow Uganda's government for over 20 years.

While the combined government operation has achieved notable success, destroying LRA bases with concentrated air and ground attacks, capturing two rebel commanders, James Onen and Peter Okot, and cutting supply lines to the remaining forces, LRA leader Jospeh Kony remains at large.

The rebels have also lashed out at civilians as they flee the government armies. They killed 20 people at a park ranger station in the town of Megero. In two other attacks Sunday, they raided a Protestant mission in Napopo and attacked Laso, a village in South Sudan. Over the Christmas holiday, rebels massacred about 100 civilians in the towns of Faradje and Tadu.

There were reports of brutal atrocities committed by the rebels in those attacks, unconfirmed but not unlike those for which Kony and two of his commanders have been indicted by the International Criminal Court.

If the combined operation can capture Kony or at least neutralize his militia, Joseph Kabila will have taken a major step toward stablizing the eastern provinces.

Dave Donelson, author of Heart of Diamonds a romantic thriller about blood diamonds in the Congo.

New Allies Attack Lord's Resistance Army

While media attention on the Democratic Republic of Congo has been focused on North Kivu and the uprising led by renegade general Laurent Nkunda, military action against another self-proclaimed liberator has been launched in the DRC. Yesterday, the armed forces of Uganda (UPDF), DRC (FARDC) and Southern Sudan (SPLA) launched a joint attack on Joseph Kony and his Lord's Resistance Army in the Garamba forests of the DRC.

Kony is one of the worst operators in the region, noted for killing and abusing citizens and particularly for kidnapping children. He is reputed to have dozens of "wives" and to personally select sex slaves for the pleasure of his commanders. His long-running guerrilla war against Uganda is believed to have created two million refugees in the last 22 years. He and several of his underlings are wanted by the International Criminal Court for their crimes against humanity.

In a joint press release reported in Reuters, the three nations' military intelligence chiefs said the armed forces attacked the main body of Kony's army and destroyed its main camp, burning it to the ground.

Kony has proven adept at swift movement and cross-border raids into Sudan, Uganda, and the Central African Republic. He operates from numerous camps in the thick forests of Garamba National park near Congo's northern border with Sudan. His tactics have continually frustrated the UN forces in Congo as well as the FARDC and no quick end is expected for the campaign to bring him to justice.

Dave Donelson, author of Heart of Diamonds a romantic thriller about blood diamonds in the Congo.