More On The AFRICOM Debate

One of my posts regarding AFRICOM has prompted a healthy and civil discussion of the issues from readers. Let me add a thought or two:

While there have been many misguided ventures financed by the IMF and others (including the U.S.) in Africa, not all have failed. Nor have all the failures been due to the source. The U.S. is not an evil country as it is so often portrayed. Much good is done by the people, corporations, and yes, the government of the U.S. for the people of Africa and elsewhere in the world. Are U.S. aid programs perfect? Of course not. Are U.S. investments without strings? Of course not. Nor are those by China, Germany, France, or Britain. The question I would pose is, if these powers don't invest in Africa, who will? Development of third world economies, improvement of living conditions, and peace in the societies won't happen without investment and assistance.

What prompted the discussion, of course, is the growing influence of AFRICOM. Please keep in mind that AFRICOM is no more than the re-organization of existing U.S. military operations on the continent. I have very mixed feelings about the use of U.S. military assets for humanitarian purposes as I wrote when AFRICOM was announced, but would like to suggest that we look beyond the rhetoric to see what's actually happening on the ground, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

AFRICOM has offered training assistance in two key areas that would be a great help to Congo. One is in the justice system, where U.S. legal experts have provided training in the investigation and prosecution of rape and other crimes by Congolese military personnel. The other is in training programs for FARDC units designed to discourage crimes against the civilians the army is supposed to be protecting. It should be noted that both programs were conducted upon the express invitation of the Congolese government.

I don't advocate military solutions for social problems, but the transfer of knowledge is far from an invasion of sovereignty. In these instances, the U.S. provided expertise lacking in the Congo. How is that wrong?

Dave Donelson, author of Heart of Diamonds a romantic thriller about blood diamonds in the Congo.

Africom Commander In Congo

Africom commander General William E. "Kip" Ward said this week that the U.S. plans to provide training, advice, and capacity building to the Congolese army. He made the remarks during a visit to Kinshasa, the last leg of a three-nation tour that stopped in Kenya and Rwanda as well.

"To restore the peace and stability that the Congolese people deserve talks to the reason for my being here," Ward said at the press conference during his visit. "It is how we can conduct our military activities to support the training and to support the increased professionalization of the Congolese armed forces as best we can as they work to bring security and stability here in the Congo."

Ward met with Congolese Minister of Defense Charles Mwando Nsimba and Chief of Defense Lieutenant General Didier Etumba Longila. He also toured Centre Superieur Militaire, a military school. Under a U.S. State Department program, a seven-man Mobile Training Team instructs Congolese officers in military leadership, preparing plans and orders, military decision-making, and staff functions. The students range in rank from captain to colonel.

This isn't the first training program conducted for the Congolese army by U.S. personnel. In January, a team of military investigators and lawyers held a collaborative training project on the investigation and prosecution of sex crimes that take place under military jurisdiction. The four-day workshop was organized by MONUC in conjunction with the U.S. Embassy and the U.S. Defense Institute of International Legal Studies in Newport, Rhode Island. Forty-two military investigators, prosecutors, and magistrates from the province of Orientale attended. The goal was to better enable the military to stop crimes of sexual violence--many of which are committed by soldiers in the FARDC, the Congolese army itself. Another series of workshops are scheduled for other provinces in May.

Plans are also being made for a major medical exercise, MEDFLAG, to be held with the DRC military next summer, according to Colonel (Doctor) Schuyler Geller, U.S. Africom's command surgeon who was on the trip with Ward. MEDFLAG will concentrate on medical training and skill-building for DRC military medical personnel.

Such capacity-building missions are a major acitivty of Africom, the U.S. military command established last fall to oversee American military relations with 53 nations in Africa. In recent testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, Ward said the U.S. currently has partnerships with 35 of the 53 nations covered by the command on the continent. Among them are U.S. military/training/aid operations in Algeria, Angola, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of Congo, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Liberia, Libya, Mali, Mauritania, Morocco, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, Somalia, Tunisia, and Uganda. It might be noted that these operations are only those publicly acknowledged by Africom—others are undoubtedly below the radar at the moment.

Africom has been particularly active in Rwanda and Uganda. The organization earned a large black eye earlier this year by providing advice and technical support for the Ugandan attack on Joseph Kony's Lords Resistance Army. That operation turned into a general debacle, resulting in the deaths of about 1000 Congolese civilians and displacement of tens of thousands more.

Dave Donelson, author of Heart of Diamonds a romantic thriller about blood diamonds in the Congo.

Congo, Rwanda, Uganda: Speculation & Opinion

How can three countries with such a history of cross-border conflict suddenly become fast friends? I'm not necessarily objecting to the easing of tensions and growing rapprochement between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Rwanda, and Uganda--just about any move with the potential to bring peace to Congo is a good thing in my book--but I do have some questions about why it's happening. Like the journalist that I am, I seldom take pronouncements by public officials at face value. And like the chess player that I also am, I try to look a few moves ahead.

Antagonism between the three countries is the historical norm, so the recent change in the tenor of their relationship is puzzling. Uganda and Rwanda both invaded Congo twice in the last 15 years or so. They both directly participated in the overthrow of two of the last three governments, including that of Laurent Kabila, father of current DRC President Joseph Kabila. Why, then, would Kabila invite his two belligerent neighbors to send their armies into the DRC? I've offered some thoughts previously, but now I'd like to add another layer to my guesswork.

First, a little background about the two most recent military actions that prompt my speculation.

In mid-December, The Ugandans joined with the FARDC (the Congolese army) and the South Sudanese in an abortive attempt to kill or capture Joseph Kony, whose rebel group, the Lords Resistance Army, has been carrying on its fight against Yoweri Museveni's government for the last several years from bases in Congo. The operation, which was mounted with logistical and strategic backing from U.S. military advisers, proved to be a debacle, with 900 Congolese civilians murdered, thousands more raped and kidnapped, and 85,000 driven from their homes by Kony's gangsters in retribution. A handful of LRA officers have been captured and a few dozen soldiers killed, but the operation has been a grand failure otherwise.

The Ugandans promised to leave Congolese soil by the end of February, then didn't. The latest announcement calls for a departure by the end of this month, even though Kony remains at large and his troops, though scattered, continue to terrorize the population.

In the meantime, Kabila met with Museveni to discuss improved relations between the two countries. Not revealed in the public announcements was any decision about how oil reserves on the border between the two countries are going to be divided. Oil has long been a bone of contention between the two nations. When I was in the region researching Heart of Diamonds in 2007, shots were fired over the development of those reserves.

The second part of the mystery was Kabila's highly unpopular invitation to Paul Kagame to send Rwandan troops into North Kivu in pursuit of the FDLR, the Hutu Interahamwe rebels who have terrorized the region since fleeing there after the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Strangely enough, the only significant accomplishment of that joint operation was the arrest of Tutsi rebel warlord Laurent Nkunda, who was detained as he traveled in Rwanda not long after it started. His troops, the CNDP, are being integrated into the Congolese army under the command of indicted war criminal Bosco Ntaganda.

The FDLR? They scattered into the same hills where they have operated with impunity for over a decade. The Rwandan army went home to enjoy their victory parade (unlike the Ugandans), but the FDLR returned and started raping and murdering civilians they accuse of co-operating with the Rwandans.

So what has been accomplished? For the civilians, not much. They are still hugely at risk in the conflict zones. Uganda strengthened its influence in the northern DRC while Rwanda did the same in the Kivus. The DRC got rid of Laurent Nkunda and co-opted the CNDP, at least on paper.

Joseph Kabila may have gained something else, though, and this is where my speculative instinct takes over. The next DRC Presidential election is to be held in 2011. My guess? Kabila is building personal ties with Uganda and Rwanda to back his candidacy when the time comes. In a truly dark scenario, he also my be laying the groundwork for their military intervention in the event that his re-election attempt fails.

As disturbing as such a scenario may be, let me add another layer. Kabila's budding alliances with Uganda and Rwanda also open him to support from their biggest backer, the United States. The potential has already been seen in the American support for the Ugandan operation, with intelligence, strategic advice, communications gear, and a reported $1 million in fuel supplied by the U.S. While American involvement in the Rwandan campaign hasn't been revealed, there is no secret about the U.S. use of Rwanda as a military staging area for humanitarian relief efforts (so far) for Darfur. It wouldn't be much of a stretch to see an expansion of U.S. military involvement in the DRC.

Now let me offend more than a few people.

Putting aside the pros and cons of Joseph Kabila's past and future performance as President and the possible influence these alliances might have on his re-election, it is conceivable that this may be the path to peace in the eastern DRC. It's obvious the Congolese army isn't capable of bringing calm to the region; the United Nations has proven to be much less than effective for numerous reasons; and other help from outside, particularly the EU and AU, just isn't going to happen. If six million dead aren't enough to bring the rest of the world to Congo's aid, what is?

In other words, a regional solution backed by the United States might be the only viable alternative. The motives of ALL the players would be suspect, but the results might be worth it. IF peace can be brought to the country, the Congo's economic and social development can take place. IF that happens with full transparency, truly competitive bidding, and carefully monitored performance contracts, the DRC can fully profit from its natural wealth and begin to achieve its full potential.

A stretch? Certainly, but it may be the only pragmatic solution.

Dave Donelson, author of Heart of Diamonds a romantic thriller about blood diamonds in the Congo.

AfriCom Guns And Butter Hard To Swallow

The U.S. Department of Defense officially opened AfriCom, the U.S. Africa Command, this week in recognition of Africa's growing strategic importance to the world. Not to mention the continent's increasing importance as an oil producer. In a line that could have come directly from the double-dealing White House portrayed in my novel Heart of Diamonds, the new command says it will work with African nations to create a more stable environment for political and economic growth.

The delight with which this news was received by the countries involved is reflected in the location of AfriCom's headquarters--Stuttgart, Germany. It was reported earlier that none of the African nations approached was willing to have the American command on its soil.

Be that as it may, AfriCom is supposed to not just bolster the U.S. military presence, but to improve the delivery and effectivness of economic development aid as well. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said:

"The focus is on the three Ds: defense, diplomacy and development. On the defense side, AFRICOM's mission is not to wage war, but to prevent it; not to show United States military presence, but to enhance the security forces of our partners."

In fact, the non-military aspects of the command are supposed to be demonstrated by the assignment of a deputy from the State Department to the staff of the four-star Army general at the top of Africom. This "guns and butter" approach is rather hard to swallow, though, when USAID Administrator Henrietta Fore says,

"We expect AFRICOM to substantially contribute to African defense sector reform and to build African partner capabilities and capacities in peacekeeping, in coastal and border security and counterterrorism."

It sounds a lot more like the mission is building African armies than boosting African economies to me.

Dave Donelson, author of Heart of Diamonds

Tags: romantic thriller, Congo, blood diamonds

U.S. Cries for African Oil

Americans spend so much time fixated on oil in the Middle East that they generally pay little or no attention to sub-Saharan Africa, which supplies almost as much black gold to the U.S. as the Persian Gulf States. It’s also a region with just as much (if not more) danger of unexpected supply disruption. That’s largely what drove the establishment of AFRICOM, the new U.S. military administrative headquarters (one of six regional HQs worldwide) devoted solely to military relations with 53 African countries.

To put the region in perspective, sub-Saharan Africa accounted for nearly 16% of U.S. daily oil imports in 2007, versus just under 18% for the Persian Gulf States and just over 18% for Canada according to the U.S. Department of Energy. On an individual country basis, here are our top five foreign suppliers and our daily purchases in thousands of barrels:

Canada 2243
Saudi Arabia 1487
Venezuela 1336
Mexico 1258
Nigeria 1131

Angola, with 507,000 barrels daily, ranks seventh, just behind Algeria. Chad, Gabon, Congo (Brazzaville), and Equatorial Guinea are petroleum suppliers to the U.S. as well, along with minor players including South Africa, Mauritania, Ivory Coast, Ghana, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (Kinshasa).

Nigeria is particularly vulnerable to disruption. Rebel groups opposed to President Umaru Yar'Adua have repeatedly destroyed oil pumping stations, pipelines, and other distribution facilities. The bold Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta has sent militants in boats through heavy seas to attack the Bonga oil field more than 65 miles from land, temporarily shutting production of more than 200,000 barrels per day.

It is not just rebel groups that threaten the Nigerian supply, either. White-collar oil workers threatened to strike after talks between U.S. energy giant Chevron Corp. and the country's white-collar oil industry workers broke down recently. A walkout was averted, but the issues remain.

The other major situation the U.S. faces with its African oil supply is competition, especially from China. The Angolans supplied almost as much oil (465,000 barrels daily) to China as they did to the U.S. in 2007. That number will almost certainly go up. The Council on Foreign Relations points out

Beijing secured a major stake in future oil production in 2004 with a $2 billion package of loans and aid that includes funds for Chinese companies to build railroads, schools, roads, hospitals, bridges, and offices; lay a fiber-optic network; and train Angolan telecommunications workers.

Angolan President José Eduardo dos Santos received his degree from the Azerbaijan Oil and Chemistry Institute in the old USSR and served as his party’s (MPLA) representative to China shortly before becoming President. The U.S. has been able to deal with him, but he’s no particular friend. After his 29 years in office during which Angola has sunk to one of the world’s poorest and least-developed countries despite almost limitless oil, diamonds, and other resources, there’s no guarantee that the situation in the country will remain stable enough to assure the U.S. of continued supply.

With two of the top seven U.S. oil suppliers vulnerable to supply disruptions at any moment, is it any wonder that the American military presence in Africa is slated for the major expansion?

Dave Donelson, author of Heart of Diamonds

Tags: romantic thriller, Congo, blood diamonds